adm_mwobs, Author at Mount Washington Observatory https://mountwashington.org/author/adm_mwobs/ Mount Washington Observatory Fri, 10 May 2024 14:55:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.3 Meet Seek the Peak Steward Chris Nichols https://mountwashington.org/meet-seek-the-peak-steward-chris-nichols/ Thu, 07 Mar 2024 20:22:08 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=11407 Meet Seek the Peak Steward Chris Nichols By MWOBS Staff Mount Washington Observatory’s largest fundraising event, Seek the Peak, has long encouraged participants to seek their peak by picking a walk in the woods of their choosing, whether in the White Mountains or their backyard, while raising funds for the organization's research, education, and

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Meet Seek the Peak Steward Chris Nichols

By MWOBS Staff

Mount Washington Observatory’s largest fundraising event, Seek the Peak, has long encouraged participants to seek their peak by picking a walk in the woods of their choosing, whether in the White Mountains or their backyard, while raising funds for the organization’s research, education, and everyday operations.

It is a great honor and pleasure to learn about the individuals who make this event an immense success year after year and the stories behind their involvement. For some, it is about getting together with friends and family in the great Granite State; for others, it is about setting a personal goal to explore their region; and for many, it is about meeting others in the outdoor community who also have an affinity for Mount Washington, the Northeast’s highest peak.

For some participants, it’s a mix of some of the above, but every year, Seek the Peak participants never fail to make it their own.

Chris Nichols, a husband, father, and grandfather from Massachusetts, climbed Mount Washington for the first time in 1978 with his Boy Scout Troop. Many years later, on a summer vacation in North Conway in 2005, he had the familiar feeling of longing to “get back into the woods.” The following year, he began tackling the 4,000 footers. It was on a Mount Washington hike in 2008 with his younger brother when Chris learned about Seek the Peak and wanted to get involved.

“2009 was my first year participating in the Seek the Peak, and I have participated every year since,” he said.

Chris at the summit during last year’s Seek the Peak.

Chris’ alignment with the Observatory stems from his interest in engineering, weather science, and climate research. “The consistency with which the Observatory has tracked weather and climate information for more than 90 years provides a historical record of the changing climate and will help lead to insights on how we can change things for the better,” he said. “Science for science sake has led to many of the things we take for granted today, and the unfettered ability to follow a question to its end without a need to turn a profit often leads to knowledge that benefits everyone. From my perspective, there aren’t a lot of enterprises left who do research just because. ”

Over the years, Chris has gotten together with friends, family, and sometimes just himself for unforgettable hut hikes, sunrises, socked-in views, surprise news crews, and memories with loved ones no longer with us.

“In 2011, I started doing STP with members of my family and some friends,” he said. “My oldest Son Jacob climbed with me many times, along with my older Brother Geoff and his kids, my niece, my wife, and assorted other friends.”

The Nichols Clan is one of the top fundraising teams for the event, last year raising a whopping $17,000 to help the Observatory reach its goal.

“In 2018, I climbed with my brother Geoff, his son Philip, and our niece Danyelle.  Geoff passed away from a sudden heart attack on September 11, 2018.  He was 56. The 2018 Seek the Peak was the last time I saw him. Geoff was an avid hiker and backpacker and lived in North Conway.”

Chris and family for Seek the Peak 2018.

The following year, Chris and a large group hiked from Lakes of the Clouds hut at 3:00 am to summit for sunrise, spread ashes, and celebrate Geoff’s life.

Chris has hiked Mount Washington just about every year for Seek the Peak (he hiked the Kinsman’s in 2020 during the pandemic), 16 Mount Washington summits in total, and has taken just about every path to get there (all except Huntington Ravine). This year, now retired, he is taking on sections of the Appalachian Trail while hiking more 4,000-footers.

“I love hiking in the White Mountains and feel a great deal of peace when I am alone in the woods,” Nichols explains. “What better way to bring attention to the Observatory than to walk a path that passes within yards of the Observatory itself?”

Chris shared that he has survived two bouts with Thyroid Cancer, the last of which (in 2020) resulted in a paralyzed left vocal cord. “They consider me cured of Thyroid Cancer at this point and my voice has been stable since my last surgery in early 2022.” You can learn more about Chris and his journey here.

What advice does he have for aspiring Seek the Peakers?

“You need to know your limits, and understand that getting to a summit is just half the trip,” Nichols says. “I’ve always believed that anyone who sets their mind to it can climb Mount Washington, but training determines how you feel the next day.”

To prepare, Chris tries to hike a few smaller mountains in months/weeks leading up to Seek the Peak weekend, a few suggestions including Pack Monadnock, Mount Monadnock, and Kearsarge South.

“These days,” Chris continues, “Seek the Peak offers lots of options to mix with a group of like-skilled hikers, and a real beginner should consider taking advantage of one of those groups.”

As for fundraising tips, “you just have to be willing to ask people and make sure you send out a few reminders,” Nichols suggests. “People are busy and one email in the hundreds most get every day can easily get lost.” He also suggests helping people draw connections to the event, such as with pictures of prior hikes and trail discussions.

Join us in cheering on Chris for this incredible adventure. To follow along on his hikes, visit his YouTube channel. We’ll also be posting updates from Chris on our channels so stay tuned, and consider a contribution to his Seek the Peak fundraiser here. We wish Chris the best on his adventure!

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Meteorological Summer 2023 By The Numbers https://mountwashington.org/meteorological-summer-2023-by-the-numbers/ Tue, 19 Sep 2023 18:23:40 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9560 Meteorological Summer 2023 By The Numbers By Ryan Knapp, Weather Observer/Staff Meteorologist Looking at our calendar, we are only days away from autumn which will land on Saturday, 23 September 2023. This date refers to the astronomical autumn season, which is based on Earth’s tilt on its axis as it is orbiting around the

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Meteorological Summer 2023 By The Numbers

By Ryan Knapp, Weather Observer/Staff Meteorologist

Looking at our calendar, we are only days away from autumn which will land on Saturday, 23 September 2023. This date refers to the astronomical autumn season, which is based on Earth’s tilt on its axis as it is orbiting around the sun. Therefore, the seasons of autumn and spring would land on the equinoxes (when day and night are roughly of equal length) and summer and winter would land on solstices (when day/night are of their greatest lengths, longest day in summer, longest night in winter). However, for those of us studying weather/climate, we are already in an autumn frame of mind.

Meteorological seasons typically occur three weeks earlier than astronomical seasons. Meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle – winter is cold, summer is warm, and fall/spring are the transition between the warmth and cold. So using the annual temperature cycles, meteorological autumn would be Sept, Oct, and Nov (winter – Dec, Jan, Feb; spring – March, April, May; and summer – June, July, August). Meteorological autumn therefore occurred 1 September 2023 and will run until 30 November 2023. Why do meteorologists and climatologists do this? This is done for consistency – by dividing up the seasons by calendar dates they are nearly even varying between 90 to 92 days. And the other reason is for less variation between seasonal and monthly statistics from year to year.

No matter which fall you choose to recognize and/or celebrate, the key thing to remember is that September is the start of our transition season from summer into winter which means that our warmest weather is generally behind us, more icy/snowy weather lies ahead (we received our first few flakes of the season in late August), and winds start to roar back to life as stronger pressure gradients develop (by October, statistically speaking, 1 out of every 2 days will see hurricane force winds and 1 out of every 4 will see gusts of 100 mph higher). So, make sure to check out the Higher Summits Forecast so that you are prepared for whatever the mountain might throw your way.

While meteorological fall has arrived, I figured it might be worthwhile reflecting back on meteorological summer 2023. Looking back at weather stats, if I had to summarize summer 2023 weather conditions on the summit, they would be – rainy, snowy, foggy/cloudy, and “calm”. To find out why these words were chosen, let’s look back at some of the stats from last year:

In terms of total liquid precipitation, from 1 June to 31 August 2023, the summit of Mt Washington received 48.39 inches, which was 23.15 inches above the 1991-2020 30-year normal for our location. This makes summer 2023 our second wettest season in our dataset (1932-present) behind the wettest season which is winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) 1969 when 50.26 inches of precipitation was collected. June 2023 was the 2nd wettest June in our dataset with 17.30 inches falling. July 2023 was our wettest July in our dataset with 17.08 inches falling. And August 2023 was our 2nd wettest August in our dataset with 14.01 inches falling.

From 1 June to 31 August of 2023, the summit received 8.4 inches of snow, which was 7.0 inches above the 1991-2020 30-year normal for our location. While a trace of snow fell in August 2023, the rest fell in June with that 8.4 inches in June making it the snowiest June ever in our dataset.

Our average summer temperature for 2023 was 47.8°F (8.8°C), which is 0.2°F below the 1991-2020 30-year normal for our station. When broken down by months, June was a cool month as it was 0.8°F below the 1991-2020 30-year normal for our station. July was a hot month as it was 2.8°F above the 1991-2020 30-year normal for our station. As such, July 2023 wound up being our 7th warmest July in our dataset and the 8th warmest month ever in our dataset. August on the other hand was 2.6°F below the 1991-2020 30-year normal for our station. As such, August 2023 wound up tying for the 14th coolest August in our dataset. Our warmest temperature recorded in summer 2023 was 66°F (18.9°C), which occurred on July 6th. Our coldest temperature recorded in summer 2023 was 26°F (-3.3°C), which occurred on June 4th.

In terms of winds, for summer 2023 our average was 23.5 mph, which was 2.1 mph below the 1991-2020 30-year normal average for our location. Of note was June 2023 which was our 3rd least windy (or “calmest”) June in our dataset and was the 11th least windy (or “calmest”) month ever in our dataset. Our highest gust recorded for summer 2023 was 94 mph, which occurred on August 19th. From 1 June to 31 August 2023, we had 10 days which had gusts of 73 mph or greater and of those days, 0 days had gusts that were 100 mph or greater.

As for our weather during 1 June to 31 August 2023, we averaged 24% of the possible sunshine. The summit had 0 days (sunrise to sunset) that were noted as clear or mostly clear, and there were 8 partly sunny days, with the remaining 84 days being filed under mostly cloudy, cloudy, or obscured (fog). We had 88 days with at least some amount of fog recorded during a 24-hour period. We had 70 days with rain and 10 days with snow.
If interested in additional weather data, please check out our F-6 page (updated nightly), our Normals, Means, and Extremes page, our Current Conditions Page, our 48-Hour Higher Summits Forecast, and our Annual Temperature Graph. If you need data for research purposes, you can submit a request HERE. If interested in supporting the work we do at our weather station, please consider donating or becoming a member.

Late summer sunrise looking down the Mt. Washington Auto Road at the summit

Late summer sunrise looking down the Mt. Washington Auto Road at the summit.

Ryan Knapp, Weather Observer/Staff Meteorologist

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September Newsletter: Big News for Education and Research https://mountwashington.org/september-newsletter-big-news-for-education-and-research/ Sat, 09 Sep 2023 19:26:31 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9784 Glaze ice is shown on an Observatory wind sensor on Aug. 31, when the first snowflakes of the 2023/24 season were observed in the early morning hours. Dear Member, I’m writing to you at an exciting time with news about our work in education and research. New Educational Programs Our staff has been hard at work

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El Niño and Its Influences on Weather https://mountwashington.org/9251-2/ Fri, 08 Sep 2023 17:46:23 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9251 El Niño and Its Influences on Weather Francis Tarasiewicz, Weather Observer & Education Specialist As we enter the fall season, it's clear that 2023 has been a year filled with meteorological buzzwords. Phrases like "polar vortex," "heat dome," and "bomb cyclones" have inundated the public with an overwhelming amount of weather terminology. One particular

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El Niño and Its Influences on Weather

Francis Tarasiewicz, Weather Observer & Education Specialist

As we enter the fall season, it’s clear that 2023 has been a year filled with meteorological buzzwords. Phrases like “polar vortex,” “heat dome,” and “bomb cyclones” have inundated the public with an overwhelming amount of weather terminology. One particular term that has gained prominence this year is “El Niño.”
Although technically more of a climate phenomenon, “El Niño” has become a familiar figure in meteorology, akin to that eccentric uncle everyone knows. Whether you’re a high-ranking expert at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or just tuning in to your local TV meteorologist’s idiosyncrasies, “El Niño” seems to be everywhere. But as its popularity has grown, so have the misconceptions and misattributions surrounding it. From clickbait articles predicting meteorological doomsday to overly confident amateur winter weather enthusiasts swearing that “El Niño” guarantees a record-breaking East Coast winter, it appears that “El Niño” has become the scapegoat for meteorological events in 2023.
In this blog, I aim to explain the drivers of El Niño and, more broadly, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We’ll delve into its current state, where it’s heading, and the million-dollar question: what does it mean for winter in the United States?
ENSO has a lengthy and impactful history. Human beings have observed its effects for at least the last 499 years. In 1524, Spanish conquistador Francisco Pizarro’s expedition faced strong southeasterly winds, which hindered their progress along the west coast of South America. The following year, they encountered more favorable northeasterly winds that allowed them to journey farther south. As they moved inland, they discovered wetter than usual conditions in otherwise arid parts of Peru and Ecuador. Little did they know that they were witnessing El Niño’s wet signature along the western coast of South America. However, ENSO hasn’t always brought favorable outcomes. The late 1800s saw a series of global famines, some attributed to disruptions in atmospheric circulations caused by El Niño. These disruptions, particularly in the monsoon circulation, led to the deaths of millions in China and India.
You might be tempted to believe the extreme headlines suggesting that El Niño is a menacing force destined to bring catastrophic events. But before anyone panics, let’s take a closer look at this climate control mechanism. ENSO can be summarized as a regular cycle of sea surface temperature changes across the equatorial Pacific, occurring every two to seven years.
These temperature changes are driven by shifts in sea-level air pressure patterns over the tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures these pressure changes by comparing air pressure differences between weather stations in Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. When Darwin experiences lower air pressure, it creates an east-to-west airflow that draws warmer surface ocean water towards Australia. The movement of water allows for deeper and colder waters to fill the partial void left by the stronger winds. This process, known as upwelling, results in colder-than-average temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, a condition known as La Niña.
Conversely, during El Niño, the east-to-west trade winds slow or even reverse, reducing upwelling and warming the ocean’s surface layer in the equatorial Pacific.
You might wonder why we monitor a narrow band of ocean temperatures thousands of miles away. The answer lies in the ocean’s impact on convection, or thunderstorm activity. The tropics are a hotbed for thunderstorms, and during an El Niño event, warmer waters supercharge convection over the tropical Pacific. Changes in the concentration of convection can significantly alter the jet stream’s configuration, affecting precipitation patterns and drought development.
Schematic diagram showing the difference in air movement and convection between El Nino and La Nina events. Bureau of Meteorology image.
Now that we’ve covered the basics of ENSO, let’s examine its current status. At the time of writing this blog, ENSO is firmly in El Niño territory, with temperature anomalies continuing to rise. The warmest sea surface temperature anomalies are currently near the west coast of South America, where water temperatures are a remarkable 3°C (5.4°F) above average
Loop of weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies around the equatorial Pacific (Jun-Aug). 
Climate and Society (IRI) predict a 90-100% chance of El Niño conditions through at least January. The probability remains above 50% through March before dropping to 37% by April. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also maintains at least an 80% chance of El Niño through next spring. The crucial point in both forecasts is the expectation of El Niño conditions throughout the winter. The next section will address what this might mean for winter weather in the United States.

To predict how an El Niño winter might unfold, let’s examine past events. We’ll start by looking at the jet stream, located high in the troposphere at about 40,000 feet (200mb). The behavior of the jet stream is essential because it influences everything from storm tracks to precipitation and temperature patterns. When analyzing the zonal (west-to-east) jet stream anomalies during the last ten El Niño events, we see that, on average, the northern or Polar jet weakens compared to normal. Conversely, the southern or subtropical branch of the jet stream becomes stronger during El Niño, driven by increased convection across the Pacific. This can lead to an active storm track across the southern United States, occasionally resulting in Nor’easters for the Northeast. In contrast, during La Niña, the polar jet tends to be slightly stronger than normal, while the subtropical jet weakens.

200mb wintertime zonal wind anomalies for El Nino (left) and La Nina (right).
Another crucial factor for understanding seasonal behavior is the 500mb heights, which describe the atmospheric height at the 500mb level. Higher heights indicate warmer atmospheric conditions, while lower heights signify cooler conditions and stormier weather. During an El Niño winter, the lowest 500mb anomalies are typically found across the southern and western United States, with a concentration of lower heights in the mid-south. These anomalies result from the active subtropical jet, which spawns frequent storms moving from west to east across the southern US. Further north, a weakened polar jet can lead to higher heights and warmer temperatures, particularly in the upper Midwest and New England. La Niña reverses this pattern, with higher heights and temperatures in southern areas and lower values in the northern US and the Pacific Northwest.
500 mb wintertime geopotential height anomalies for El Nino (left) and La Nina (right).
The most noticeable impacts on wintertime precipitation anomalies occur along a belt stretching from California to the Southeast and roughly along the I-95 corridor on the eastern seaboard. During an El Niño winter, the increased southern storm track leads to more regular precipitation, particularly in the southeast, where anomalies can range from 1 to 5 inches above normal. Conversely, parts of the Pacific Northwest and Ohio tend to experience drier conditions as most storm tracks are south of these areas. La Niña flips these patterns, with precipitation anomalies shifting locations and magnitude.
Winter anomalies become more evenly distributed from north to south, with storm tracks once again playing a significant role. The southern US, experiencing wetter and stormier conditions, is more likely to see cooler-than-average temperatures, while the northern US generally leans toward warmer temperatures. The warmest anomalies are typically found in the upper Midwest, northern New England, and the Pacific Northwest. Warmer temperature departures dominate most of the country during a La Niña event, except for the western US and some parts of the upper Midwest.
Wintertime temperature anomalies for El Nino (left) and La Nina (right). 
In summary, what do all these variables imply for the upcoming winter? Where will storms track, and will there be blizzards or a salvageable ski season?
It’s essential to note that NOAA won’t issue its annual winter outlook for another two months. While we can speculate about increased storm activity and possible warmth in the northern US, making a definitive forecast at this point is challenging due to the numerous variables at play. Moreover, ENSO’s primary impact tends to be on the west coast, whereas our seasonal variability on the east coast is largely influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
The NAO describes the relationship between air pressure in the Arctic and mid-latitudes where most of us live. Unlike ENSO, the NAO alternates between positive and negative phases on a weekly to monthly basis. The negative phase, characterized by lower pressure and colder polar regions, often results in colder weather and more active winters.
Forecasts for the NAO are difficult to make beyond a few weeks, and its fluctuations have a more substantial impact on the weather in the northeastern United States than ENSO. In conclusion, there’s much uncertainty, but one thing is certain: Mount Washington will experience extreme weather this winter, regardless of what unfolds in the Pacific.

Francis Tarasiewicz, Weather Observer & Education Specialist

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August Newsletter: A Season of Weather Extremes https://mountwashington.org/august-newsletter-a-season-of-weather-extremes/ Wed, 09 Aug 2023 19:28:52 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9787 Sunrise on July 22, with Mount Adams and Mount Madison rising above the undercast. Dear Member, With summer in its last month on the meteorology calendar, our observers are working hard to track a season of weather extremes. June surpassed the Observatory’s snowfall record for that month, and July experienced record rainfall. As of this

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A Look at Record Precipitation in July and the Upcoming Seasonal Outlook https://mountwashington.org/a-look-at-record-precipitation-in-july-and-the-upcoming-seasonal-outlook/ Mon, 07 Aug 2023 17:35:40 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9656 A Look at Record Precipitation in July and the Upcoming Seasonal Outlook With cold temperatures on the higher summits at the end of July, many people were surprised to see the change in conditions so early in the year. Statistically speaking, however, cooler temperatures to welcome the month of August are not atypical. According to

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A Look at Record Precipitation in July and the Upcoming Seasonal Outlook

With cold temperatures on the higher summits at the end of July, many people were surprised to see the change in conditions so early in the year.

Statistically speaking, however, cooler temperatures to welcome the month of August are not atypical. According to our climate record, in August, average daily temperatures begin their downward tendency for the rest of the calendar year.
August also marks the last month of meteorological summer, which may be disappointing to some considering this season has been characterized by excessive rainfall, high humidity, and unhealthy air quality for New England. Whether it was the threat of thunderstorms, flooding, or wildfire smoke, poor weather conditions have made it challenging to pursue outdoor activities throughout the season. All of this has people wondering, “when will this pattern end,” and, “what does all of this precipitation mean for ski season”? Before I address these questions, let’s take a closer look at some statistics from the summer thus far.

To begin meteorological summer, June on Mount Washington had a chilly start. Below-normal temperatures were recorded for eight days in a row from June 3 through June 10. This, along with another cold spell in the middle of the month, led to an average monthly temperature of 45°F, which is 1°F cooler than normal.

Cool temperatures also came with snow. A quasi-stationary low sat over New England for much of the first half of the month, delivering 8.4 inches of snow. This made June 2023 the snowiest June on record at Mount Washington Observatory.

This pattern ultimately set the tone for the rest of the summer as blocking high pressure developed over the North Atlantic and a broad area of high pressure developed over the western portion of the United States. This left New England “stuck in the middle” with upper-level troughing overhead.
Due to cyclonic flow aloft, a deep supply of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, and a persistent generation of surface low-pressure systems in the Northeast, New England endured 24 days of rain out of the available 30 days in the month of June. Mount Washington received 17.30 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation, which is 8.71 inches higher than normal and makes June 2023 the second wettest June on record (our precipitation records began in 1932).

With increased available moisture in the atmosphere, relative humidity was also proportionally high throughout the month, coming in at an average of 80% (average humidity calculation excludes periods of fog in which relative humidity is 100%). The lack of sunshine for the month is also evident with the summit achieving just 23% of the available sunshine minutes.

July followed suit with high precipitation totals, high humidity, and dense cloud coverage. The jet stream held its persistent troughing pattern over New England while sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic rose and the El Niño Southern Oscillation continued its transition from La Niña to El Niño. Warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, the equatorial Pacific, and the Gulf of Mexico all made contributions to increasing the available moisture in the atmosphere.

In July, low-pressure systems forming beneath cyclonic flow aloft tended to move west of New Hampshire, frequently giving the summit southerly winds that brought increased temperatures, moisture, and higher dew points from the southern region of the United States. This was further emphasized with the onset of El Niño, which commonly brings warmer temperatures and increased precipitation to the Southeast and along the Eastern Seaboard.

All of this resulted in rain falling on the summit in 22 out of the 31 days in July. In total, 17.08 inches of rain was measured, which is 8.15 inches higher than normal and makes July 2023 the wettest July in Observatory history. The average relative humidity of 86% was fairly high, contributing to periodically high heat index values at the lower elevations. On the summit, the average temperature for July was 53°F, which is 3°F warmer than normal. Another month with a lack of sunshine also occurred in July with only 25% of the available sunshine minutes achieved.

While it is hard to say when the wet, humid pattern will change or what it means for ski season, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has posted seasonal outlooks through the end of 2023, shown above. Some long-range models are also suggesting that high pressure at the surface will be more apt to move in every few days through the middle August, although troughing in the upper levels will still be prevalent. What that means is that we might be able to expect a few more sunny, dry days than we have had over the last couple of months, but the seemingly daily chance for showers and thunderstorms will likely continue. The CPC is projecting normal precipitation for the rest of this calendar year and temperatures that are warmer than normal.

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Measuring weather in this extreme environment requires durable, advanced instruments. We are asking for donations of $17.08 to fund the purchase of a new temperature sensor (HMP -155A), which will help us continue the Observatory’s long-term climate record. Your contribution will make an impact!

Alexandra Branton, Weather Observer & Education Specialist

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Excessive Rainfall over Vermont https://mountwashington.org/excessive-rainfall-over-vermont/ Sun, 06 Aug 2023 17:51:05 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9666 Excessive Rainfall over Vermont Among the more remarkable events to occur in New England during the last few weeks are the incredible amounts of rainfall centered over Vermont between July 9 and 10. This event had a clear signature that was evident several days in advance and was overall handled well by both models

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Excessive Rainfall over Vermont

Among the more remarkable events to occur in New England during the last few weeks are the incredible amounts of rainfall centered over Vermont between July 9 and 10.

This event had a clear signature that was evident several days in advance and was overall handled well by both models and forecasters in the areas that ultimately experienced the highest precipitation totals and remarkable flooding, which resulted from all that rain falling on soils already saturated from weeks of well-above average rainfall across nearly the entirety of the state.

The very wet antecedent conditions combined with excessive rainfall produced one of the more remarkable flood events in recent memory in Vermont, equalling and exceeding in some locations the flooding due to the remnants of Hurricane Irene in 2011.

Let’s set the stage.

This extraordinary rainfall event in Vermont occurred after the state had already received roughly 150-250% of their average rainfall over the previous two weeks. Vermont averages roughly four inches of rainfall per month in the summer months, so all the dark blue to yellow dots on the map below correspond to locations which had already received more than their average precipitation for the whole month of July within the two weeks prior to the event. Much of this rainfall could be attributed to a persistent trough to the west and a blocking high pressure to the east, allowing warm, moist air to be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic Ocean into the area and be tapped by disturbances passing through the region.

Map of precipitation totals in the two weeks prior to the event. Locations with dark blue dots had already received much of their entire July rainfall in the preceding two weeks (>=200% of average). You can also see that New Hampshire also had a rather wet spell, though it was spared the worst of the rainfall between July 9 and 10.

Now, let’s get to the actual event itself.

The favorable atmospheric setup for this particular rainfall event was already being noted nearly a week before with warm, humid air being drawn into into the region with sufficient upper-level dynamics to wring much of this moisture out, while the low pressure system only slowly moved eastward. The atmospheric setup of the previous week became more concerning in the lead-up to the event. The amount of moisture involved and the minimal movement of the system would act to keep a relatively narrow corridor under near continuous moderate-to-heavy rainfall for an extended period of time before the best forcing for ascent would finally move eastward out of the affected area.

Let’s look a little more deeply into each of those ingredients.

The warm, humid air being drawn into the low pressure system was exceptionally moist as compared to climatological averages for this region. Atmospheric scientists and meteorologists typically measure the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere above any particular location as “precipitable water,” which is the depth of water that would result if all the water vapor above a location were condensed in one fell swoop and fell as rain. The greater the number, the more moisture is present, and the greater the probability for heavy precipitation to occur, provided there are methods by which that air mass can be lifted, it’s water vapor condensed, and eventually precipitated.

The below figure is from a weather balloon launched at Upton, NY at 00Z on July 10 (8:00 p.m. on July 9 EDT) showing the extremely moist air streaming into the Vermont area during the event. The two lines on the figure show the temperature of the air (right line) and the dewpoint (left line). The close proximity of those lines from the surface to nearly the top of the troposphere (where the lines both tend to jag to the right) show that the air moving into Vermont during the event was nearly saturated between the surface and the tropopause, and in this particular case, if all the moisture was condensed, would have contained a 48.57mm (1.91 inches) of water.

00Z Sounding from Upton, NY showing the very moist atmosphere streaming into Vermont at the time of the event, with precipitable water values of about 48.57 mm (red box), or about 1.91 inches of water.

Sources of Lift

So, we have a deep layer of very warm, moist air, and the next most important ingredient is how that moisture can be lifted, condensed, and precipitated as rain. During the summer, the jet stream is usually weaker, and does not play as large a role in influencing the strengthening of storms. But during this event, as shown in the below map, there were two healthy jet-streaks that were involved in uplifting the air. The first is located across the central Mid-Atlantic, oriented predominantly west-to-east, whereas the other, stronger one begins over upstate New York and heads northeast over Quebec. This dual jet-streak setup promotes upper-level divergence over the left-front exit region of the first jet streak, and the right-front entrance region of the second, which when overlaid over each other, encompass most of New England, due to how the atmosphere responds to accelerations in atmospheric flows. The upper divergence noted at upper-levels of the atmosphere promotes lower-level convergence and upward motion throughout the atmospheric column.

Lower-Level Dynamics

For most of the event, the surface map did not look all that exceptional meteorologically. As shown below, a surface low pressure system very slowly meanders along the southern New England coastline for much of the event. Even though the surface front is stationary, the upper-level dynamics are forcing the low-level flow from the the warm to the cool side of the stationary front, with the shallow frontal slope promoting uplift well to its north in a surface trough that extended north of the low’s center (dashed tan line emanating from the low).

This surface trough prompted convergence and uplift to occur along a preferred axis, oriented roughly south to north, and also roughly aligned, and in the middle of the western and eastern borders of Vermont. The other item to note here is the extremely slow motion of the system, moving only from southern central New Jersey to the southern coast of Massachusetts over a 24-hour period. Not only this, but flow around the low and into the surface trough maintains roughly over Vermont for much of this period, promoting the training of precipitation over the same locations for much of the period. The slow-moving nature of the system was due to a massive blocking high pressure system off the Atlantic Coast of Canada that ‘blocked’ the progress of the low pressure system out of the area.

High-resolution surface maps between 00Z July 10 to 00Z on July 11 showing the low pressure center and the frontal systems associated with the low throughout the course of the event. Note the extremely slow progress of the low throughout this period, acting to keep the plume of moisture and heavy precipitation directed into Vermont.

The low pressure system also provided some low-level convergence which also promoted upward vertical motion, and also provided a focus for inflow of warm, moist air over Vermont. That combined with a sharpening negatively-tilted mid-level shortwave moving in from the west added extra oomph to the upward motion in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Finally, the consistent SSE flow into Vermont helped to direct the flow at somewhat of an angle to the Green Mountains. Because the low-level flow had sufficient instability the extra nudge upwards from the mountains led to some extra precipitation on the eastern, or windward side of the mountains. Roughly, you can think of each of these processes as promoting uplift, focusing that uplift over Vermont, and wringing out the moisture in a narrow corridor, leading to the heavy rainfall measured during the event.

And finally, not only were there multiple sources of lift available to wring as much water out of the deep layer of moist air flowing over Vermont, but the rainfall process itself was very efficient, adding to precipitation totals. When warm clouds (clouds which are above freezing) are sufficiently deep within a warm environment, raindrops develop by larger drops colliding and combining with smaller cloud drops (the collision-coalesence model) versus the Bergeron process, which involves ice crystals growing at the expense of liquid droplets in ‘cold’ clouds which are below freezing.

And what meteorologists call ‘efficient’ in precipitation terms is that they effectively convert precipitable water into rainfall. There are three things to note about this: These processes typically occur in the tropics where the freezing line is higher as the air is usually quite warm. Secondly, with the freezing line being so high, there was less ice in much of the clouds, and so there was less charge separation, and as a result there was not much lightning occurring despite the substantial rain rates. And finally, because warm rain processes were dominant, the droplet size distribution of the rain that was falling caused precipitation estimates based on the radar returns to actually underestimate the amount of precipitation that fell, and made it appear (on radar) that it was not raining as hard as it was. The inconsistency of the relationship between radar returns and the actual amount of rain that falls (the Z-R relationship) is one of the reasons that actually measuring rainfall in precipitation cans is so important!

The Twitter graphic showing the corridor of heavy precipitation that fell over the two day period of July 9 to 10 within the National Weather Service’s Burlington office area of responsibility. Not the north-south axis of heavy rainfall (>7.00 inches) and how it located predominantly along and to the east of the Green Mountains, indicating the role of terrain in uplifting low-level moisture.

All of the above ingredients combined to lead to excessive rainfall over nearly the whole state of Vermont and produced the totals seen in the above map. You can view an animation of the radar images taken every hour throughout the event from 18Z on July 9th through 06Z on July 11th (2pm July 9th EDT→ 1am on July 11th EDT), showing the incredible stream of precipitation directed over Vermont for much of the period.

Let’s look into how to place the amount of rainfall experienced in Vermont during this extraordinary event into context, and in this analysis we’re going to use Montpelier, VT as a test case. Montpelier has averaged about 4.5 inches of precipitation during the month of July between 1990 and 2020. It received 5.28’’ of precipitation on July 10, which was a record for any date in July, and among the greatest single-day precipitation totals ever measured at the station in its history.

According to the Atlas 14 point precipitation frequency estimates, which estimates the frequency at which certain amounts of precipitation could be expected, this amount of precipitation is expected to occur at this station only once every 100 years within a 24 hour period, making it quite an exceptional event!

As a side note, that website predicts precipitation recurrence intervals for precipitation at many different locations within the United States showing the expected benchmark amounts of precipitation anywhere between 5 minutes (e.g. 0.30 in/5 min about 1 time a year) and 60 days (21.3 in/60 days about 1 time every 1000 years) and that which would be expected each year versus once every 1000 years. It is important to note three items: 1) Since all these values are statistically determined based on past rainfall amounts determined at the station, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty in the amounts of precipitation that would be expected at the longer return intervals, as these extreme events may not have been sampled during the station’s established period of record. 2) If a station has already experienced a ‘1-in-100 year event,’ it does not mean that it will take 100 more years to experience the next one, only that that particular event has a 1% probability of occurring in any particular year. 3) A ‘1-in-100 year’ rainfall event is not the same thing as a ‘1-in-100 year’ flood event because of the importance of ground conditions before the rainfall event, and the fact that streamflow is an integrative property of all points upstream of a location, not only a property of the rainfall experienced at one particular location.

Finally, let’s look into the flooding situation, and the amount and types of flooding information that can be quickly found online in the event of heavy rainfall and flooding in your area.

There are several locations to obtain streamflow information online, but here we will be focusing on two locations: 1) real-time streamflow information from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and 2) predicted stream gauge heights from regional River Forecast Centers. The first source links to all the streamflow gauges which are currently reporting information, and allows you zoom in by state, and finally by location, either by clicking on the different color dots on the map, or clicking on ‘statewide streamflow real-time table’ link on the right, which can be organized by river basin or by county. Once you click on a station, it will show the graph for the last seven days, 30 days, or year of either the height of the river flow past the station gage, or the total volume of water passing by the station, or discharge, which both can be useful in flooding situations to see if the water is still rising, if it is, how quickly.

The second site consists of fewer stations, but provides stream height predictions three days out into the future. The markers on the map are colored according to the type (if any) of flooding expected to occur within that three-day span. Once you click on the station, the river height over the last 3 days will be loaded along with the expected river levels over the next three days. These forecasts can be quite useful for larger rivers which tend to have delayed crests, where their peak flow is delayed somewhat behind when the peak precipitation rates occur. At even fewer stations in a few locations, there are ‘inundation maps’ which allow you to determine which areas might flood if the river reaches a given depth.

For example, in the case of Montpelier, the Winooski River crested at height of 21.35 feet on July 11, the second highest crest at that particular location on record. If we go to the inundation map for this station and select the nearest river depth, in this case 21.8 feet, you can see which areas of Montpelier were likely underwater during the worst of the flooding, and how deep the water was at any particular point along the river when it crested.

Karl Philippoff, Weather Observer – Research and IT

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Observatory Expands Education Team https://mountwashington.org/observatory-expands-education-team/ Fri, 04 Aug 2023 18:00:19 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9682 Observatory Expands Education Team Jackie Bellefontaine, left, and Emily Veh recently joined our education team. This summer, Mount Washington Observatory welcomed Jackie Bellefontaine and Emily Veh to the education team led by the Director of Education Brian Fitzgerald. Bellefontaine is the Observatory’s School Programs Coordinator, and Veh joins the organization through AmeriCorps as the

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Observatory Expands Education Team

Jackie Bellefontaine, left, and Emily Veh recently joined our education team.

This summer, Mount Washington Observatory welcomed Jackie Bellefontaine and Emily Veh to the education team led by the Director of Education Brian Fitzgerald. Bellefontaine is the Observatory’s School Programs Coordinator, and Veh joins the organization through AmeriCorps as the School Programs Educator.

Bellefontaine, a former MWOBS weather observer, is excited to be part of the team once again. She is a Boston native with a B.S. in Earth Sciences from the University of Maine. During her undergraduate studies, she was given the opportunity to join the Juneau Icefield Research Program (JIRP) and spent the summer ski-traversing the icefield from Juneau, AK to Altin, BC. This expeditionary-style program, focusing on studies relating to glaciology, solidified her passion for cold, dynamic places.

In 2021, Bellefontaine began her winter internship at the Observatory, then shifted into the Weather Observer & Education Specialist role after just a few months as an intern. Later in 2022, after thoroughly enjoying her summit experience, she pursued a position with the Lake Winnipesaukee Association, managing their educational outreach and development efforts. Now back at the Observatory, Bellefontaine is looking forward to developing educational programs and engaging with educators, students, and adult learners in the immediate community and beyond.

Veh is also thrilled to be joining the education team this year. Originally from California, she relocated to New Hampshire to pursue her interest in environmental education and interpretation. In 2022, Veh was an interpretive ranger at Franconia Notch State Park as part of the New Hampshire Conservation Corps and the Student Conservation Association. In her role at Franconia Notch, she interacted with park visitors daily, educating the public on topics of natural and cultural history. Her favorite part of being an interpretive ranger was interacting with children and students and facilitating a space to spark an interest or sense of wonder about the natural world.

Veh is looking forward to developing programs that will connect students to the fascinating world of weather and climate on Mount Washington, and is excited to further her own experience in environmental education.

Together, our education team has some exciting plans to continue developing and implementing innovative educational programs and resources for K-12 students, educators, and adult learners alike. Expect to see these educators leading field trips to the summit, making in-classrooms visits, and educating learners of all ages on the forces that drive Earth’s weather and climate.

If you’re interested in MWOBS educational programming and resources, please email jbellefontaine@mountwashington.org.

MWOBS Staff, Education

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Jack Middleton and Guy Gosselin Each Receive Founders Award at Annual Meeting https://mountwashington.org/jack-middleton-and-guy-gosselin-each-receive-founders-award-at-annual-meeting/ Fri, 04 Aug 2023 17:56:25 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9676 Jack Middleton and Guy Gosselin Each Receive Founders Award at Annual Meeting Mount Washington Observatory Trustee Gary MacDonald, left, congratulates Life Trustee and Founders Award recipient Jack Middleton in front of the Observatory "Shaky Shack" at McAuliffe Shepard Discovery Center. When Mount Washington Observatory (MWOBS) members, trustees, and staff gathered in Concord, NH recently

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Jack Middleton and Guy Gosselin Each Receive Founders Award at Annual Meeting

Mount Washington Observatory Trustee Gary MacDonald, left, congratulates Life Trustee and Founders Award recipient Jack Middleton in front of the Observatory “Shaky Shack” at McAuliffe Shepard Discovery Center.

When Mount Washington Observatory (MWOBS) members, trustees, and staff gathered in Concord, NH recently at the McAuliffe Shepard Discovery Center for MWOBS’ Annual Meeting, two longtime members and life trustees were recognized for their decades of service. The recipients of the organization’s first-ever Founders Award are Jack Middleton of Freedom, NH and Guy Gosselin of Gorham, NH.

The Founders Award, given by the MWOBS Board of Trustees, recognizes individuals who have rendered exemplary service to the organization over a period of many years. It is the highest form of recognition and honor that MWOBS gives to any individual. It is awarded at the Annual Meeting, when the trustees determine there is a clear and deserving recipient.

“Both Jack and Guy have given of themselves tirelessly, for many, many decades,” Rob Kirsch, MWOBS Immediate Past President, said. “Their efforts have meant the world to MWOBS. Without them, we would quite literally not exist. I can think of no better way to recognize Jack and Guy for all they have done to create and develop the organization we know and love today.”

As tokens memorializing their recognition, both recipients received customized glass tumblers bearing the MWOBS logo along with their preferred drink of choice for celebration after the meeting. Middleton and Gosselin both have long histories with MWOBS, and each has been integral to Observatory operations throughout their lives.

Middleton worked at MWOBS from 1952 to 1953, served as Secretary from 1956 until 2019, then as a trustee from 1957 to 2022, and now as a life trustee. While working for Observatory co-founder Joe Dodge, Middleton met and later married Ann Dodge, making Mount Washington and MWOBS a part of his family. He has played a myriad of roles in service to MWOBS, including 60 years on the Executive Committee, 40+ years as the Observatory representative on the Mount Washington Commission, decades on the Governance Committee, leadership roles in major fundraising programs, and service on too many committees and projects to list here.

Middleton received his A.B. from Lafayette College in 1950 and his J.D. from Boston University School of Law in 1956. He is president of the law firm of McLane, Graf, Raulerson & Middleton, and has been active in numerous civic, professional, and bar association activities for many years. He has three grown children.

Guy Gosselin is shown in an earlier photo during one of his many trips to the summit weather station.

Gosselin is one of the North Country’s most respected modern pioneers and regional historians, but he says the “high point” of his career began February 15, 1961, when he became a MWOBS weather observer. Indeed, that proved an important date for the organization and for Gosselin.

He came to Mount Washington to fill a short-term, several-month position and stayed with the mountain for 35 years. Gosselin became chief observer in 1963 and was appointed to the director’s post in 1971. He joined the Board of Trustees in 1978. During lean times in the 1960s, his family and that of another observer shared a single, meager observer’s salary so the organization could continue with an adequate minimal staff.

Gosselin conceived of and built the Observatory’s Summit Museum, the predecessor to our current Extreme Mount Washington museum. Under his leadership, the Observatory’s research program extended into solar and wind energy. He was instrumental in the transition from the organization’s 1937-1980 wooden summit structure to its current home in the Mount Washington State Park Sherman Adams Building.

For many years, Guy and Betty, who served as our membership secretary, allowed MWOBS to run its back office from their home. Since retiring as executive director in 1996, Gosselin went on to serve his community as a substance abuse counsellor, reduced recidivism in the state prison system by introducing therapies based on meditation, and wrote and published novels. During that period, he continued to serve MWOBS in a variety of important roles, including by advising the organization as a consultant and serving as managing editor of Windswept.

Gosselin became a life trustee in 2002. He lives in Gorham, NH and has three grown children.
Both Middleton and Gosselin have made MWOBS what it is today. We hope you will join us in celebrating their accomplishments.

Drew Bush, Executive Director

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As Summer Heats Up, Stay Cool, Stay Hydrated, Stay Informed! https://mountwashington.org/as-summer-heats-up-stay-cool-stay-hydrated-stay-informed/ Mon, 24 Jul 2023 18:04:47 +0000 https://mountwashington.org/?p=9686 As Summer Heats Up, Stay Cool, Stay Hydrated, Stay Informed! While Mt Washington and the White Mountains might be better known for cold weather risks like hypothermia and frostbite, the summer comes with its own risks related to heat illness. Heat-related illnesses commonly occur when the body produces more heat than the environment can

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As Summer Heats Up, Stay Cool, Stay Hydrated, Stay Informed!

While Mt Washington and the White Mountains might be better known for cold weather risks like hypothermia and frostbite, the summer comes with its own risks related to heat illness. Heat-related illnesses commonly occur when the body produces more heat than the environment can allow the body to lose. While northern New England this summer has not been experiencing the triple-digit heat that the American south has been experiencing, we have experienced a few days with warmth and many days with high humidity in the mix this summer. When you add in the exertion that comes with hiking or other outdoor activities in the summer, even a warm, muggy day can lead to heat illness for some individuals. So it is essential to recognize the signs of heat illnesses and take precautionary steps to have a safe and enjoyable hiking experience in the White Mountains.

Summer sunrise on the northern summits of the Presidential Range. Left to right: Mt Clay, Mt Jefferson, Mt Adams, Mt Madison, and Ball Crag

While a few heat-related illnesses can occur, there are three to be on the lookout as they can lead to severe complications or, if not addressed correctly, could lead to death – heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke.

Heat cramps can be the first symptom leading to more severe issues of heat syncope, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. Heat cramps typically occur when heavy sweating occurs during intense exercise. If you are an individual that is not accustomed to hiking, that could be an intense activity causing you to sweat heavily. And while hot weather causes people to sweat, even a warm day with high humidity can cause individuals to sweat. In the cases of high humidity, moisture is not getting wicked from your body which causes your body to sweat even more as it tries to cool and get back into a neutral state. As your body loses salts and nutrients through sweat, you might feel uncomfortable tightening in the muscles in your abdomen, arms, hands, legs, feet, or elsewhere. If this occurs, stop physical activity and move to a cool, shady location. Drink (don’t chug) water or, if available, a sports drink with electrolytes (come in bottled form or a powder you can add to water). Eat foods with salts and nutrients to replenish what was lost. And wait for the cramps to entirely subside before resuming activity. If the cramps continue to occur even after recovering, if the cramps last longer than an hour, or if you have heart-related issues, end your hike/activity and seek medical attention.

The next stage is heat exhaustion. When this occurs, individuals will experience heavy sweating, their muscles will cramp, their skin will be cold, pale, and clammy (despite how warm the air temperature might be), their pulse will be either fast or weak, they might feel nausea or will start to vomit, they will begin to feel tired or weak, they might have difficulty breathing, they might become dizzy or disoriented, they might be noting a headache, and they might faint (pass out). If this occurs, move the individual to a cool, shaded place, loosen their clothing if possible, including undoing shoe laces, if possible, put cool/wet clothes on them or, if available, get them in a creek/stream, and have them sip water or, if available, a sports drink with electrolytes (come in bottled form or a powder you can add to water). And as their stomach settles, have them take small bits of foods with salts and nutrients to replenish what was lost. If an individual continues to get worse or the symptoms are not subsiding after an hour, it is time to end your hike/activity and seek medical attention.

The next stage is heat stroke. When this occurs, sweating might be heavy; however, by this stage, sweating has typically stopped resulting in the body overheating with body temperatures typically reaching 103F+. Skin will appear hot, red, flush, dry, or damp. An individual’s pulse will become fast and strong. Individuals will usually experience headaches, dizziness or disorientation, nausea/vomiting, confusion, severe restlessness, high anxiety, difficulty breathing, and could lose consciousness (pass out), or seizures might occur. At this stage, if possible, call 911 to get emergency services heading your way. However, suppose you are hiking in several areas in the White Mountains. That might require sending someone out for assistance or hiking to neighboring areas where radio communications (huts or shelters) might be possible. While waiting, move the individual to a cooler, shaded location. Try to reduce their body temperature by wetting clothing, removing any unnecessary clothing, or, if available, placing them in cool bodies of water (streams, creeks, ponds, lakes, etc). If available, ice packs should be applied. Most people by this stage will have an altered level of consciousness, and providing them with fluids will not be safe.

Luckily most individuals can side-step heat-related illnesses with a bit of preparation. The first is to stay hydrated. To remain hydrated might mean packing more fluids than you usually do (typically double or more if you are a heavy sweater to begin with). Or, if available, refill your bottles more often. Do not drink caffeinated drinks (coffee, soda, etc.) or alcohol, as those can dehydrate and alter your state. Pay attention to not only your ins but also your outs – if you haven’t peed in a long time, that might mean more fluids are needed, or when you do pee, if it is dark, that too can be a sign of dehydration that could later spiral out.

Wear loose-fitting, lightweight, light-color, moisture-wicking clothing. Shade your head and neck with a hat. If excess water is available, like a creek or stream, wet your clothing periodically to aid evaporative cooling.

Start outdoor activities early. I know 6 am is early for some, but during hot/humid days, you should think more around 3 or 4 am. If you choose a later start, reconsider your plans, aim for shorter, less strenuous hikes, and maybe find trails next to a waterway. Regardless of when you start, take frequent breaks, even more than you might usually take, and go at a slower pace than you might do on a cooler day. If you are from a cool climate, acclimatize to hot/humid environments for several days before doing anything strenuous. And wear sunscreen.

Suppose you are on medications or have heart, lung, or other health factors. In that case, it might be worth consulting your doctor or physician to ensure hiking/outdoor activities are OK in hot/humid conditions.

Lastly, know the symptoms that lead to heat cramps, exhaustion, and stroke. If you or anyone in your party is experiencing symptoms, take the necessary steps to address issues immediately and, hopefully, before they worsen. And there is no shame in ending an activity early if you are not feeling well. The mountains are not going anywhere, so it is always safer to turn around and try again on a better day. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed!

NWS quick reference card, heat exhaustion and heat stroke

Ryan Knapp, Weather Observer/Staff Meteorologist

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